---
title: "The EarthScan Navigation Panel: Climate Scenarios"
description: Select different Climate Scenarios in EarthScan™
---

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# The EarthScan Navigation Panel: Climate Scenarios

## Select different Climate Scenarios in EarthScan™

> After reading this article, you will learn:
> 
> - [Which EarthScan Climate Scenarios are available](https://knowledgebase.earth-scan.com/knowledge/the-earthscan-navigation-panel-climate-scenarios#which)
> - [Where to find Climate Scenarios in EarthScan](https://knowledgebase.earth-scan.com/knowledge/the-earthscan-navigation-panel-climate-scenarios#where)
> - [What each Climate Scenario represents](https://knowledgebase.earth-scan.com/knowledge/the-earthscan-navigation-panel-climate-scenarios#what)

Climate scenarios are analytical tools used to explore the potential impacts of climate change under different potential futures.

[Learn more about climate scenarios and how they’ve been developed.](https://knowledgebase.earth-scan.com/knowledge/what-are-climate-scenarios?hsLang=en)

 

There are three Climate Scenarios available in EarthScan:

- Business as usual
- Emissions peak in 2040
- Paris aligned

### **Where can I find EarthScan Climate Scenarios?**

Within EarthScan, you can find the Climate Scenarios as part of the Navigation Panel.

![scenarios](https://knowledgebase.earth-scan.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Knowledge%20Base%20Import/scenarios.png?width=688&height=323&name=scenarios.png)

As you filter through different Climate Scenarios, your Insights will update to reflect your selection. 

### **What do the EarthScan Climate Scenarios indicate?**

#### Business as usual

‘Business as usual’ represents a future where governments put no further policy in place to reduce emissions and do little to avert risk to physical assets (such as buildings) as a result of climate change. Organizations face the greatest level of physical risk, but the lowest level of [transition risk](https://knowledgebase.earth-scan.com/knowledge/climate-related-risks-physical-and-transition?hsLang=en). This scenario:

- Forecasts rising emissions throughout the 21st century.
- Predicts that global warming will exceed 3°C.
- Contains the greatest level of decision uncertainty and climate volatility.

Use the **Business as usual scenario** to:represent the worst-case scenario for physical risk and the best-case scenario for transition risk.

#### Emissions peak in 2040

Under an ‘Emissions peak in 2040’ scenario, expert guidance suggests that physical climate risk to organizations will increase, as compared to a Paris aligned scenario. Furthermore, late policy action will result in greater levels of transition risks compared to the alternative two scenarios. In this scenario:

- Policy action to curb emissions is delayed.
- Greater, more severe policy action is required further down the line to compensate.
- Climate risk volatility increases.
- End-of-century temperatures exceed 2°C; the current best estimate is 2.7°C.

Use the **Emissions peak in 2040** scenario to: represent a central, or ‘middle-of-the road’, pathway for physical risk, and the worst-case scenario for transition risk. You can also use this scenario to explore how your organization might be impacted under the scenario that best represents current national\* commitments to emissions reductions. 

\*National refers to the [193 Parties](https://treaties.un.org/Pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=TREATY&mtdsg_no=XXVII-7-d&chapter=27&clang=_en) (192 countries plus the European Union) that have joined the Paris Agreement.

#### Paris aligned

Under a ‘Paris aligned’ scenario, organizations will experience less physical risk than under other scenarios, but a high level of transition risk. While this scenario will reduce projected loss and damage relating to physical risk, it won’t eliminate them. [By many expert accounts following COP26](https://unfccc.int/news/cop26-reaches-consensus-on-key-actions-to-address-climate-change), this scenario is now deemed optimistic, although still possible. This scenario assumes:

- Early, decisive policy action.
- A unified move towards a low carbon economy.
- Actions will limit warming as close to 1.5°C as soon as possible and are enough to keep warming below 2°C, in line with the Paris Agreement.
- Lowest climate volatility risk and lowest decision uncertainty.

Use the **Paris aligned** scenario to**:** represent a best case scenario for physical risk, and a central pathway for transition risk. This scenario also aligns with [TCFD disclosure recommendations](https://knowledgebase.earth-scan.com/knowledge/what-are-climate-related-financial-disclosures?hsLang=en) (as well as other frameworks such as SASB and ESG), which specifies that climate scenario analysis should include a 2°C or lower scenario. 

**Please note:** The riverine flooding signal is based on RCP scenarios across all three Climate Scenarios in EarthScan. For all other signals, the Climate Scenarios are based on SSP scenarios.  

[Learn more about climate scenarios.](https://knowledgebase.earth-scan.com/knowledge/what-are-climate-scenarios?hsLang=en)

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