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What is uncertainty?

Understand what uncertainty is and how to interpret it

After reading this article, you will learn:

What does uncertainty mean in EarthScan?

In EarthScan Insights, the values you see represented in the figures and text are the most likely outcomes for a given asset's location, estimated based on the climate scenario and time frame selected in EarthScan. 


To arrive at the most likely value, we calculate a distribution of values that represent possible outcomes based on our models and use statistical techniques to identify the most likely outcome. This is the 50th percentile of the distribution.  


The uncertainty bars in EarthScan Insights represent 90% of the values in the distribution (45% either side of the most likely outcome). Between the upper (95th percentile) and lower uncertainty bars (5th percentile) there is 90% probability that the true value will be within the two values represented by the upper and lower uncertainty bars.

Learn how to view uncertainty in EarthScan here

Why do we show uncertainty?

While climate models are incredible sources of climate intelligence and essential in helping us prepare for future climate risks, all climate model projections have a level of uncertainty. It is important to recognize, understand, and account for uncertainty in climate projections in decision-making. Risks can be underestimated when uncertainties are overlooked, which can undermine the accuracy of climate risk reporting and effectiveness of adaptation strategies.

How can I use uncertainty?

Representing uncertainty allows EarthScan users to understand the 'best case' or 'worst case' that are scientifically plausible (within the 90% credible range) for their assets across different scenarios, time horizons and return periods. Organizations that want to ensure they are maximizing climate resilience, especially for high risk assets, can incorporate the uncertainty into their planning and account for the worst case scenario.  For example, a nuclear power plant located on the coast might want to plan around the 95th percentile for flood risk.