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How should I use EarthScan Climate Scenarios?

Understand the three Climate Scenarios available in EarthScan™ and how you should use them to understand your physical climate risk

After reading this article, you will learn:

Which Climate Scenarios are available in EarthScan?

There are three Climate Scenarios represented in EarthScan: Business as Usual, Emissions peak in 2040, and Paris aligned.

Each one corresponds to a different emissions trajectory, based on a range of possible developments related to human activity and resulting global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. These scenarios cover the broadest range of climate possibilities and have the richest climate simulation data available.  

How should I use EarthScan Climate Scenarios?

EarthScan Climate Scenarios allow you to evaluate how your organization’s adaptation or risk mitigation strategies might perform across different plausible climate futures.

If your organization is looking to incorporate climate scenario analysis into internal and external reporting processes, as well as risk assessment and planning activities, it’s important to consider multiple scenarios. By considering different scenarios, organizations can understand and report on the full breadth of climate risk and opportunities as part of their risk management strategies, as well as internal and external disclosures in line with TCFD recommendations.

Use the different scenarios to understand how physical risk to your assets might change under different future climate conditions. The climate scenarios represented in EarthScan are:

  • a worst-case scenario (i.e. Business as usual)
  • an intermediate scenario (i.e. Emissions peak in 2040)
  • a best-case scenario, aligned with the UNFCCC Paris Agreement (i.e. Paris aligned)

Using the best- and worst-case scenarios gives you an idea of the range of uncertainty you may face over time, in relation to physical climate risk. The intermediate scenario aligns with current global policy commitments, and can be considered as a central pathway, i.e. the middle of the two extremes.

Learn more about the Climate Scenarios in EarthScan and how to interpret them.

How do EarthScan Climate Scenarios align with climate related financial disclosure reporting requirements?

The three EarthScan Climate Scenarios align with the recommendations set out by the Task Force for Climate-related Financial Disclosure (TCFD). The TCFD recommends the inclusion of a 2℃ or lower scenario in your scenario analysis for Climate-related financial disclosures. 

Learn more about the Climate Scenarios available in EarthScan.